[SMM Analysis] Weekly Review of the Lithium Carbonate Market: High Market Sentiment and Lithium Prices Fluctuating Upward

Spot lithium carbonate prices fluctuated upward this week, with the overall price center moving significantly higher. Price-wise, the average battery-grade lithium carbonate price rose from 80,750 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week to 84,350 yuan/mt, while the average industrial-grade lithium carbonate price increased from 78,550 yuan/mt to 82,000 yuan/mt, with cumulative gains of 3,600 yuan/mt and 3,450 yuan/mt, respectively. The trading range for the most-traded lithium carbonate futures contract shifted upward to between 86,200 yuan/mt and 89,900 yuan/mt, with futures price fluctuations primarily driven by improved demand expectations and bullish market sentiment.

Supply side, lithium chemical plants maintained high operating rates overall, with capacity fully utilized. Both spodumene-based and salt lake-based effective capacity operating rates remained high, serving as the main supply sources. Domestic lithium carbonate production in November is expected to maintain October's level, roughly flat MoM. Demand side, the EV market saw rapid growth in both commercial and passenger new energy vehicles; the ESS market experienced robust supply and demand, with supply remaining tight.

Market transactions, market sentiment remained high this week, with upstream continuing destocking, growing reluctance to sell, and strong willingness to hold prices firm. Despite this week's price increases, downstream material plants maintained cautious purchase willingness, only buying for rigid demand. Currently, upstream and downstream enterprises are negotiating long-term agreements for next year, with the main focus at this stage being the coefficient.

Looking ahead, battery cell and cathode material production schedules continue to improve in November, and lithium carbonate is expected to see significant destocking during the month. Supported by both supply-demand fundamentals and market sentiment, lithium prices may maintain a strong, fluctuating pattern in the short term.